Thursday, May 7, 2009

UCSD making noise again

UCSD opened the California Collegiate Athletic Association Tournament today with a 2-1 win over Cal State Dominguez Hills, putting the Tritons (34-12) in today's semifinals. There are more details on the victory right here.

Earlier this week, UCSD head coach Dan O'Brien (left) was named CCAA Coach of the Year. Eight Tritons players earned all-conference recognition to join their coach with postseason honors.

UCSD, which won a school-record 43 games last season, is in the midst of one of its most successful seasons. The No. 4-ranked Tritons clinched the school's first CCAA regular season championship over the weekend, finishing 16-0 at home in conference play.

Strasburg's place among college baseball's elite

There was plenty of hype for San Diego State's Stephen Strasburg coming into the season. Amazingly, he has lived up to if not exceeded those expectations.

His name is mentioned in the same breath now with the greatest pitchers in college baseball history. I took a look at Strasburg's place among the best of the best in a story published right here in today's San Diego Union-Tribune.

No wonder crowds come out in record numbers every time he pitches now. A record 3,072 were in attendance two weeks ago when Strasburg beat TCU at Tony Gwynn Stadium. Strasburg makes his final regular season home start Friday against Air Force in a game that was declared a sellout on Monday.

I joked after Monday's press conference that you will know Strasburg's really made if there are scalpers out front of Tony Gwynn Stadium before the game.

It's no joke anymore.

Wednesday, someone had an ad on Craigslist offering four tickets to the game for $40 apiece (face value $7). And they didn't even include a seat — they were for standing room only.

Crazy.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Assessing postseason prospects for SDSU, USD

Here's how things shape up for San Diego State and USD as they approach the final two weeks of the regular season:

THE AZTECS
They control their destiny in the Mountain West Conference, thanks to UNLV taking two of three games over the weekend against New Mexico. By that, I mean that SDSU could still finish among the top two teams in the MWC and earn a first-round bye in the upcoming conference tournament.

Here's the top four teams in the standings:
TCU 10-4
New Mexico 12-8
BYU 11-8
SDSU 10-8

If SDSU closes out the season with sweeps over Air Force and Utah, then the Aztecs would finish percentage points ahead of both New Mexico and BYU, which had MWC games rained out earlier this season that can't be made up. That means neither the Lobos nor the Cougars could get to 16 wins. BYU finishes up conference play this week when it hosts UNLV. New Mexico closes out conference play next week at home against Air Force. TCU has two series remaining — hosting Utah this week before traveling next week to UNLV.

Obviously, the Aztecs are hoping to win the MWC Tournament and claim the automatic NCAA Tournament berth that comes with it. A strong finish down the stretch could enable the Aztecs to earn an at-large berth, however. It would be the first at-large awarded in the MWC's 10-year history.

By the way, SDSU is preparing to put in a bid to host an NCAA Regioanal or Super Regional. The Aztecs still need to play their way into such a scenario — UC Irvine, Cal State Fullerton and Arizona State are the most likely West Coast sites — but bids are due by May 15 so the paperwork must be filed just in case the opportunity presents itself.


THE TOREROS
Loyola Marymount's three-game sweep of USD was devastating to the Toreros' chances of playing in the West Coast Conference Championship Series.

Here's the top three teams in the standings:
Gonzaga 12-6
Loyola Marymount 12-6
USD 10-8

The only way for USD to reach the championship series is by sweeping this weekend's home series against USF AND a three-game sweep by either LMU or Gonzaga when the teams meet next week in Spokane, Wash. Pretty unlikely scenario, although stranger things have happened. Injuries that have plagued USD throughout the season seem to have finally caught up with the Toreros, whose at-large chances also are all but gone.

Saturday, May 2, 2009

USD's season on the brink

LOS ANGELES — USD has lost its grip.

And now things are in danger of slipping away.

The Toreros are two-time defending West Coast Conference champions. They opened WCC play this season by winning their first six games.

USD has lost seven of 11 conference games since.

Today's 7-3 loss to Loyola Marymount at Page Stadium was costly because it gives the Toreros virtually no margin for error now if they are to qualify for the WCC Championship Series.

USD (27-20, 10-7 WCC) fell into third place in the conference. Only two teams are invited to play for the WCC's automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. Right now the Toreros are looking up at LMU and Gonzaga, which are tied for first at 11-6. Both LMU and Gonzaga hold the tiebraker edge (by virtue of series wins) over USD should the teams finish in a tie for first or second.

Sunday's finale becomes a must-win for the Toreros if they are to have a mathematical chance of winning the WCC regular-season title and host the championship series for the third straight year. Another loss and USD may be hard-pressed simply to finish second.

After Sunday, there will be one week remaining in the conference season: USD closes out with three games at home against USF while LMU travels to Gonzaga.

USD has played well enough to earn an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament, but now that's slipping away as well. USD's stretch of three straight postseason appearance could be in jeopardy if the Toreros continue to play the way they did today against the Lions. In addition to the USF series, the Toreros have two nonconference games at Arizona State and

LMU got to Griffin (7-3) early, starting with one out in the first inning when the Lions' Ryan Wheeler clubbed his ninth homer of the season over the fence in right-center for a 2-0 lead.

Whenever USD battled back, LMU took control again. The Toreros cut the lead to 2-1 in the third inning, then slipped back to 3-2 in the fourth and 5-2 through five innings.

A run in the eighth cut it to 5-2 and USD had runners at second and third with one out. But LMU starting pitcher Alex Gillingham (4-2) got out of it. Gillingham was solid throughout the game, retiring 12 straight from the fourth through seventh innings.

The Toreros loaded the bases with no outs against LMU reliever Xavier Esquivel, but the junior right-hander extricated himself after allowing a run-scoring out to Jon Hotta.

USD coach Rich Hill stayed with Griffin, who allowed all seven runs on 13 hits with six strikeouts and one walk.

Could Strasburg go straight to the majors?

There have been 20 players during the draft era who made their major league debuts without spending a day in the minor leagues. In fact, here's the list if you want to check them out. There are several San Diego connections, which I'll get to later.

The reason for the topic today is increasing talk that San Diego State right-hander Stephen Strasburg could go straight to the major leagues. I've heard it mentioned here and there during the season. ESPN's Buster Olney mentions it here among today's blog items.

I don't know that anyone would argue about Strasburg being ready for the big leagues.

"He's further along at 20 than any young pitcher I've ever seen," said SDSU coach Tony Gwynn. "I didn't see some of the great, great ones, but for a 20-year-old junior to be out there recognizing that they're cheating on the fastball and just drop that slider right on them, then a change-up and then a 99 (mph fastball) on the black . . . ."

Gwynn just shakes his head.

"He's the perfect example of a guy who makes what I do so much fun," said Gwynn, "because when he came in here as a freshman, there's no way anybody saw what's happening now back then. I'm not going to tell you I did. I didn't see it. You've got to be kidding me. He was throwing 90, 91. What's the big deal? I was telling Rusty (Filter, SDSU's pitching coach), 'There's a whole bunch of guys who throw 90. This guy?' Three years later . . . ."

Strasburg has been the consensus No. 1 overall choice for the 2009 draft since well before the season, back to last summer when he was a member of the U.S. Olympic team. Going 10-0 with a 1.38 ERA, 147 strikeouts and 15 walks in 78.1 innings pitched so far this year has only cemented things.

Washington has the first pick in the draft, followed by Seattle and then San Diego. Could contract demands (the $50 million figure thrown around two months ago is insane, of course) or some other issue cause him to drop in the draft. Maybe. But talent-wise he is head and shoulders above any other player in the draft.

What if Strasburg was to somehow slip to the Padres at No. 3? I asked Gwynn where Strasburg would fit into the Padres' rotation if he joined the team this summer.

"Three," said Gwynn, who would put Strasburg right behind Jake Peavy and Chris Young.

"If he went to Seattle, he'd be three.

"If he goes to Washington, he'd be one."

RIGHT NOW?!

"That's how I look at it," said Gwynn. "Now he's still got stuff he's got to learn. He's got to challenge the strike zone a little bit more at the big-league level."

But Strasburg's ready to go straight to the major leagues.

The last time I heard this kind of talk was during Mark Prior's junior year at USC in 2001. And perhaps Prior was polished enough to go straight to the major leagues. Prior had pretty absurd numbers too, going 15-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 202 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 138.2 innings. Baseball America called him the greatest college pitcher ever.

But there were a few things that prevented Prior from going straight to the majors. First of all, Prior was already well over 100 innings pitched for the Trojans, who reached the College World Series that season, when he was selected by the Chicago Cubs with the draft's second pick (the Twins took Joe Mauer with the first pick). And joining the team late in the season was out of the question when contract negotiations dragged on before Prior signed a deal in the fall that included a record $10.5 million signing bonus. Prior looked good during spring training in 2002, but the decision was made to give him a few starts in the minors. It turned out to be nine starts. Prior dominated and made his major league debut with the Cubs by late May.

Draft rules changed two years ago and teams now have until just August 15 to sign players. That means there would still be plenty of season remaining to showcase Strasburg. The question would be how many more innings a team would want to put on his arm after the college season (Strasburg will probably have pitched more than 100 innings for the Aztecs) and how ready to go Strasburg would be after contract negotiations have concluded.

The last player to go straight to the majors was Cal outfielder Xavier Nady with the Padres in 2000. The Padres also sent Minnesota outfielder Dave Winfield straight to the majors in 1973 and Oregon third baseman Dave Roberts in 1972.

The first player to go straight to the majors was USC pitcher Mike Adamson in 1967 with the Baltimore Orioles. Adamson was born in San Diego and played high school baseball at Point Loma High. In 1970, Stanford pitcher Steve Dunning went straight to the majors with the Cleveland Indians. Dunning prepped at University of San Diego High School.