Sunday, April 12, 2009

Aztecs, Toreros in good standing


It's way too early to count chickens, but San Diego State and USD are well positioned to reach the postseason. Both SDSU and USD share first place in their respective conferences as the season turns toward the home stretch.

The Aztecs took two of three at UNLV and are tied with New Mexico, with a showdown looming this weekend in Albuquerque. USD lost two of three over the weekend at Gonzaga, which could come back to bite the Toreros if the teams tie for the regular season championship. The series winner hosts the WCC Championship Series.

Both teams can secure automatic berths by winning their conference's postseason events. Plan B would be an at-large berth, which also seems within the realm of possibility (although it would be the first ever for a MWC team). Strong RPIs, overall record and record in their last 10 games are among the keys to at-large selection.

SDSU's RPI was as high as ninth earlier in the season after winning two of three at TCU — according to RPIs modeled by boydsworld.com. The Aztecs' RPI sits at 27 now and will drop some — call it the curse of the MWC — with series remaining against New Mexico (65), Utah (123) and Air Force (266). Only TCU (7) is ahead of SDSU in RPI among conference foes.

USD's RPI is at 25, with conference series remaining against Loyola Marymount (67), USF (103), Saint Mary's (115) and Portland (184).

Best-case scenario: Both teams reach the postseason and SDSU hosts a first-round NCAA Regional. The Aztecs are expected to make a host bid. They would have to play themselves into position to be at least a No. 2 seed to host one of 16 four-team regionals. The West is expected to get three and perhaps four regional sites. Arizona State, Cal State Fullerton, UC Irvine, Stanford and Oregon State are other West Coast schools that could be in position to bid and host. SDSU was the site for a regional in 2007 that was hosted by USD.

Perhaps we're getting ahead of ourselves here, though. There's still a lot of baseball to be played before the postseason arrives.

Mountain West Conference standings
TEAM                                           CONF   OVERALL
San Diego State . . . . . . . . . . . .   8-4       25-12
New Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8-4       28-8
TCU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6-3       22-10
BYU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   7-5       20-13
UNLV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   5-7       16-18
Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3-9       13-18
Air Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2-7       11-22

SDSU's remaining MWC games
April 17-19 at New Mexico
April 24-26 vs. TCU
May 8-10 vs. Air Force
May 14-16 at Utah

MWC Tournament
Double-elimination format May 19-23 at TCU
note: top two regular-season finishers receive first-round byes
(winner receives automatic berth to NCAA Tournament)

West Coast Conference standings
TEAM                                         CONF     OVERALL
USD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7-2          23-13
Loyola Marymount . . . . . . . . . . 7-2          22-15
Gonzaga . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3           23-10
Pepperdine . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4-5          20-13
USF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4-5          16-20
Saint Mary's . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3-6          19-17
Santa Clara . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3-6          13-17
Portland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2-7          17-16

USD's remaining WCC games
April 17-19 at Saint Mary's
April 24-26 vs. Portland
May 1-3 at Loyola Marymount
May 8-9 vs. USF

WCC Championship Series (best-of-three)
Second-place team at first-place team May 22-24
(winner receives automatic berth to NCAA Tournament)

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